Northeast Asia online travel bookings to break $30B by 2026

In 2024, the stimulative force of Northeast Asia's primary travel influencer, China, reasserted itself after a tepid 12 months since its borders reopened in 2023.

This boosted the visitor economies in South Korea, Hong Kong and Macau, but the impact was sub-par in Taiwan. In September, China, South Korea and Japan set a mutual target to share 40 million inbound arrivals by 2030. In November, China simplified "cross-boundary" travel measures to expedite border clearance between the mainland, Hong Kong and Macau.

Airlines reactivated more dormant routes and launched new destination pairs regionally. Hotels fared better than in any year since 2019, but downward pressure on rates remains. Rail and car rental bookings benefited from broadening patterns of experiential travel among inbound and domestic trip-takers.

The four markets continue to look over their shoulders, however. Dynamic expansion of travel and tourism across the previous decade means 2019 is still the watermark against which all travel metrics are evaluated. This especially applies to annual arrivals, which is the metric that matters most to governments.

In Hong Kong, 2018 is a better guide, due to the street protests that paralyzed the city for much of 2019. The economic multiplier of travel and aviation means governments will continue playing a frontline role to try to steer inbound tourism to Hong Kong and Macau and inbound and domestic tourism in South Korea and Taiwan toward growth.

Meanwhile, in 2024, evidence emerged that the overall pace of recovery was slowing, and the region is braced for a complex set of regional and global geo-economic challenges in 2025. 

History will define 2023 as statistically anomalous. From a low COVID-era base, a powerful upturn in travel activity across Northeast Asia saw gross bookings surge by 116% to reach $44.6 billion according to Phocuswright’s latest travel research report on the region Northeast Asia Travel Market Report 2023-2027. These were exceptional circumstances, and while gross travel bookings are forecast to record healthy growth of 15% in 2024, to reach $51.3 billion, annual expansion will moderate notably to reach $60.3 billion in 2027.

Northeast Asia's booking pathway is online. New demand, demographic and strategic dynamics will further reshape travel across the decade. The slump-to-recovery period will transform into stepped growth of overall gross bookings through 2027.  

The mindset shift towards e-commerce and app-enabled travel and lifestyle services is irreversible, and is being reinforced by new smart-tech and AI travel booking tools. Online gross bookings quickly regained momentum once borders reopened to ease past the 2019 level of $15.6 billion in 2023 with $21.3 billion and are projected to smash through the $30 billion barrier in 2026, when online penetration will reach 57% of all bookings. Still, this may prove an under-estimation should the AI revolution have a dramatic impact on travel booking in a region renowned for its swift adoption of life-enhancing consumer technology.